Disaster Risk Preparedness: Crime Prevention Policies During Natural Disasters

Nanthieswar Sathian
University of New Haven

Natural disasters are external shocks that broadly impact countries by affecting their economy, infrastructure, and capital stock (Ikefuji & Horii, 2012). According to the National Centers for Environmental Information’s (NCEI) Billion-Dollar-Weather and Climate Disasters Report, the United States experienced about 403 weather and climate-related disasters from 1980 to 2024, resulting in overall damages exceeding $1 billion (Smith, 2020). When communities are forced to evacuate because of these damages, it creates opportunities for individuals to exploit the now vulnerable infrastructure, including homes and businesses. Studies have shown that disasters can increase property crimes such as theft, burglary, and looting (LeBeau, 2002; Silverio-Murillo et al., 2024). Gun theft in particular increases after disaster events that create vulnerability in the safety protocols already in place. Police reports show that stolen firearms are used in the commission of violent crimes (Hemenway et al., 2026). While studies assess gun thefts, there is a lack of studies in a disaster context. However, reports of stolen guns are seen throughout the events of natural disasters. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on a policy that addresses this issue. Thus, a Gun Theft Reduction policy that will promote safe storage of firearms by both private and commercial businesses, in the presence or absence of a disaster, will help in reducing gun theft incidents during disaster and post-disaster recovery.

Statement of the Problem

There has been a notable increase in the number of natural disaster events since 2000 (Leaning & Guha-Sapir, 2013). The resulting financial losses are due to damage to property and infrastructure in affected regions. While these damages can be mitigated through improved disaster preparedness policies, the wider spillover effects of disasters on society have received comparatively less attention (Silverio-Murillo et al., 2024). These indirect impacts, such as increased crime, displacement, and social instability, are essential aspects of disaster consequences that need more focus. 

Current research on the disaster-crime relationship has found mixed results regarding the impact of disasters on crime. For example, a study analyzing crime rates after an earthquake in New Zealand found a decrease in assault cases (Breetzke et al., 2016), while Zhou (1997) observed no significant change in violent crime following an earthquake in China. Silverio-Murillo et al. (2024) suggested a causal link between earthquakes and increases in assault and vandalism. Concerning property crimes, research indicates a decline in burglary after an earthquake (Breetzke et al., 2016; García Hombrados, 2020). Conversely, a study by Frailing et al. (2021) reported a temporary rise in residential burglaries following the 2017 tornado in New Orleans. Additional empirical evidence shows an increase in property crimes after a flood, as Zahnow et al. (2017) identified a positive relationship between the 2011 Australian flood and property crimes. 

Although the evidence connecting disasters to increased crime is mixed, it is crucial to focus on this issue because disasters are occurring more frequently and with greater severity. Few policies specifically target crime during disasters. Research shows that property crimes, especially burglary, tend to increase after events like storms and floods (Imelda, 2024; LeBeau, 2002). Increased opportunities and fewer guardianship in key areas such as residential and commercial zones drive this rise. Some burglaries may not end with the act itself; they can also lead to other crimes. For example, reports of lootings at gun stores during disasters have been documented (Date, 2018), indicating that disasters create opportunities for offenders to obtain equipment for future crimes (Robinson et al., 2024). Therefore, pre- and post-disaster policies must prioritize not only immediate recovery but also reducing opportunities for future offenses.

Pre-Existing Policy

The effects of natural disasters are experienced throughout the United States, in various intensities and forms. Unfortunately, most pre-existing policies in the country, at both the state and federal levels, focus more on the overall structural and economic recovery from disasters. While this is not an issue, hyper-focusing only on structural and economic recovery creates tunnel vision for other immediate and lagging issues, such as crime, which can and should be addressed effectively in the initial stages. The United States is prone to hurricanes, storms, earthquakes, forest fires, and extreme temperatures that affect communities, infrastructures, and economies. As research shows, however, hurricanes and floods have a positive association with crime, making it necessary to address these types of disasters (Frailing et al., 2021; Silverio-Murillo et al., 2024; Zahnow et al., 2017).

NOLA Ready is a disaster preparedness campaign program managed by the New Orleans Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (NOHSEP). The main goal is to ensure that cities in New Orleans are prepared for any emergencies, including natural and man-made disasters. It works by improving communication between various organizations, such as the first responders and the community. NOLA Ready also engages in community outreach programs in collaboration with similar organizations and trains volunteers. For example, NOLA Ready maintains connections with hundreds of nonprofit groups that identify as Voluntary Organizations Active in Disasters (VOAD).

NOLA Ready’s primary focus is on infrastructural protection, emergency communication, evacuations, and resource distribution, while severely lacking direct crime prevention. This shows a significant limitation on the program’s functioning, as research suggests that disaster events can increase opportunities for looting, burglary, and other property crimes due to weakened guardianship that arises from weakened guardianship, population displacement, and lack of law enforcement resources (Breetzke et al., 2016; García Hombrados, 2020; Silverio-Murillo et al., 2024). The assessment of NOLA Ready shows mixed results; while there are reports of an increase in communications, there are still issues with the structural and social application of the program (City of New Orleans, 2022). The improved communication and resource management systems may indirectly reduce criminal opportunities; however, the program itself lacks targeted strategies specifically addressing crimes during disasters, such as coordinated policing protocols, post-disaster crime monitoring systems, or crime prevention measures that are situation-based.

Federal-level disaster policies, such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), prioritize post-disaster recovery and mitigation over crime prevention. The policy focuses on restoration of infrastructure, hazard mitigation, and emergency management coordination, which indirectly deals with crime control; however, there is no direct focus on crime control, making the policy ineffective. The limited focus on criminological factors in disaster management policy shows the caveat in both local and federal disaster management frameworks.

Overall, the existing policies address the infrastructural resilience and mitigation of structural and economic damages, while insufficiently addressing criminogenic effects that arise due to disasters. Therefore, disaster management policies should focus on enhancing guardianship, coordinated policing, improving surveillance, and target protection in neighborhoods that are vulnerable to disasters.

Policy Options

Disaster events are not uncommon. However, it should also be acknowledged that they are unpredictable in their occurrence and intensity. Therefore, developing programs that only focus on the disaster-crime relationship may not be sustainable. Thus, developing programs that can add-ons to pre-existing policies can be beneficial. According to the routine activities theory (Cohen & Felson, 1979), crime is the convergence of time and space of three key variables: a motivated offender, a suitable target, and a lack of a capable guardian. During disasters, due to the breakdown of infrastructure, there is a lack of physical security, increasing the suitability of the target. Additionally, the negative strain caused by the disaster could motivate individuals to engage in acts that can be deemed criminal (Agnew,1992). Taking these theories into account, the following policies are proposed.

Program 1: Burglary Control During Disasters

Research has shown that property crime increases during storms and floods (Imelda, 2024; LeBeau, 2002). This would mean that areas that are affected by such disasters should develop better planning to mitigate the effects. Residential areas and certain commercial areas are the usual targets for burglary during disasters due to the mandatory evacuation policies (Linning & Silver, 2021), which remove the human guardianship aspect, increasing the suitability of the target properties. This policy focuses on increasing guardianship to deter possible offenders from reaching the target.

Increasing guardianship can be achieved by strengthening security measures for valuable targets. This means placing property with a higher market value within protected areas that can withstand storms and floods and are less vulnerable during infrastructural failures. The specific type of property will depend on the neighborhood, such as stores in commercial districts or homes and garages in residential areas. While these measures help protect property by boosting specific guardianships, it is also necessary to implement structural guardianship measures. For example, a city’s power grid should be reinforced to endure disasters and designed for quick and easy restoration afterward. Restoring power is vital, as research indicates an increase in property crime during blackouts and power outages (Imelda, 2024; LeBeau, 2002). This policy depends on pre-disaster preparedness to prevent burglaries in residential and commercial neighborhoods. 

Advantages:

1. Increase guardianship for properties during disasters (Breetzke et al., 2016; Cohen and Felson, 1979).
2. The increased guardianship effects spill over even when there are no disasters, securing properties more.
3. Helps reduce the strain on the state during the time of disasters, allowing for efficient functioning and focusing on recovery (Deflem & Sutphin, 2009)
4. Individual strain is also reduced; individuals may feel at ease in the shelters knowing that their valuables are secure.

Disadvantages:

1. High setup costs.
2. Difficulty in the implementation, especially in securing structural strength.
3. The intensity of the disasters might deem the preparation insufficient.
4. No one-size-fits-all preparations; the type of disaster will determine the efficiency of the pre-disaster preparedness.

Program 2: Patrols During Disasters

Mandatory evacuation policies are legally enforced during disasters, and violating these policies is penalized (Linning & Silver, 2021). As a result, civilians are directed to emergency shelters that are either dedicated facilities or temporary locations, such as schools converted into shelters during emergencies. When the population is evacuated and housed in these facilities, it can create opportunities for potential offenders, as residential and commercial neighborhoods are left unattended. 

During disasters, first responders are assigned specific roles such as search and rescue, emergency medical care, and distribution of essentials. Law enforcement agencies, during disasters, are usually tasked with assisting disaster response teams like the Urban Search & Rescue (US&R) Task Force and Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT). The severity of the disaster determines how these resources are allocated. In high-intensity disasters, law enforcement agencies become overwhelmed because they need to assist the task forces and maintain law and order (Deflem & Sutphin, 2009). This reduces patrol frequency and diminishes neighborhood guardianship. 

While volunteer groups that patrol exist, they primarily focus on search and rescue rather than crime patrols. Therefore, the state should create a program that recruits volunteers trained to patrol neighborhoods specifically for crime prevention. This would lessen the workload on law enforcement agencies and help ensure neighborhood safety during disasters. Since disaster response policies already include volunteer-based programs, adding a crime control component would enhance these existing efforts. 

Advantages:

1. Increases the human guardianship aspect, which is more dependable during disasters compared to mechanical guardianship.
2. Cost-effective, as volunteers do not have monetary expectations for their work.
3. Most pre-existing disaster risk policies have volunteer programs, which reduces the need for looking for volunteers.
4. The volunteers are usually locals who are already exposed to the conditions and accustomed to the neighborhood
5. The volunteers are trained to deal with disaster-ridden environments, meaning that they are aware of the difficulties in traversing the neighborhoods during patrols.

Disadvantages:

1. The volunteers are exposed more to the disaster than when they volunteer in resource management and distribution.
2. There is a need for more shifts in patrols due to exhaustion caused by the environment.
3. Communication between teams may not be efficient due to structural damage.

Program 3: Gun Theft Reduction

Gun theft in the United States is a serious issue, with hundreds of thousands of guns being stolen each year (Harrell & Truman, 2024; Langton, 2012). Police data shows that 95% of these stolen guns come from individual owners, while the rest are from official dealers (Hemenway et al., 2026). Although research has not examined this problem during natural disasters, it is important to take steps to prevent it from becoming a major concern. A study by Hemenway et al. (2017) analyzed the characteristics of people whose guns were stolen and found that those who owned multiple guns, carried them, or did not store them safely reported more thefts. Considering this, disasters can disrupt safe storage practices, which may increase the risk of theft. 

A follow-up study by Hemenway et al. (2026) found that 605 of the thefts occurred from victims’ homes. This indicates a need for stronger guardianship to reduce gun theft, especially during disasters when protection is weaker. To improve safe gun storage, programs that educate gun owners on proper use and carrying should be put in place. Penalties for failing to secure guns should also be increased. The study also shows that loaded and unlocked guns were three times more likely to be stolen, as well as guns kept in cars (Hemenway et al. 2026); therefore, during evacuations, one of the priorities should be removing guns from cars and storing them securely. 

Advantages:

1. This policy is very cost-effective to set up, as it targets private individuals rather than the state.
2. The enforcement of a strict safe storage of guns policy will also help in reducing gun theft, even in times of no disasters.
3. The policy could reduce the number of gun-related violent incidents that occur using stolen guns, as reported by Robinson et al. (2024)
4. This policy is easier to implement and reduces the risk of human injury during disasters.
5. The intensity and the type of disaster will not affect the effectiveness of this policy.

Disadvantages:

1. Enforcing this policy can be complex, as ensuring individuals follow the guidelines can be demanding.
2. It targets a specific problem. During disasters, there are several properties that could be targeted for various reasons.

Suggested Policy

As various research shows that disasters lead to increased property crime, it is necessary to take steps to keep crime under control (Imelda, 2024; LeBeau, 2002; Silverio-Murillo et al., 2024). While many property crimes are affected, theft and burglary are especially notable, particularly gun theft. Considering this, it is recommended to develop a policy to reduce gun theft. This is advised because of the delayed impact gun theft has on society. Stolen guns can be used for other criminal activities, often violent, making it a major issue. Although criminal networks can access guns through black markets, stealing them remains cheaper. The chances of successfully stealing guns increase during disasters, as they are left vulnerable and with less security. 

Economically, this policy is cost-effective to implement, requiring little initial investment, since most of the suggested steps focus on citizens rather than the state. As the state will primarily serve as an enforcer, it will lessen the economic burden. Additionally, this policy can also decrease gun thefts during non-disaster periods, making it an even stronger recommendation. The need for a secure place to store guns at home can also encourage residents to improve their security, which can further deter other properties from becoming targets. 

Existing disaster-crime prevention strategies cover a broader range of areas during a disaster. For example, increasing police patrols during a disaster would require substantial personnel and financial resources, which strain the system further. Additionally, enforcing large-scale surveillance and stricter curfew can affect civil liberty and require a significant investment. There are also concerns about the policies being reactive rather than proactive. The Gun theft prevention policy, on the other hand, is more targeted, practical, and sustainable, and the implementation functions even in the absence of a disaster. The focus on gun theft prevention also reduces the chance of violent crime occurring using the stolen firearms. The policy addresses both immediate disaster-related theft and long-term public safety risks. Furthermore, the policy is also highly proactive, which relies on the responsibility of both the state and the citizens, making a sustainable, longer-term, and efficient gun theft control possible.

Annotated Bibliography

Breetzke, G. D., King, M., & Fabris-Rotelli, I. (2018). The impact of the Canterbury Earthquakes on the temporal and spatial patterning of crime in Christchurch, New Zealand. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Criminology, 51(1), 135–156. https://doi.org/10.1177/0004865816679687

Analyzed the effect of the Canterbury earthquakes on crime and found an increase in post-disaster crime in domestic violence, while other crimes were decreased. However, spatially, there was an increase in crime. The study establishes the effect of disaster on crime, making it necessary to address the issue of crime during disasters.

City of New Orleans. (2022). 2021 NOLA Ready Annual Report. NOLA Ready.

https://ready.nola.gov/NOLAReady/media/Documents/Annual%20Reports/2021-NOLA-Ready-Annual-Report.pdf

Reports on the functioning of the NOLA Ready program. The reports show the effectiveness of the program that allows us to assess the program.

Cohen, L. E., & Felson, M. (1979). Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44(4), 588. https://doi.org/10.2307/2094589

The study presented a novel approach for analyzing crime trends called the “routine activities approach.” The study suggests changing the perspective from understanding crime from the offender’s point of view to the circumstances and opportunities presented to them. Routine activities theory is proposed here.

Date, J. (2018, September 15). Gun stores present a target for looters in hurricanes. ABC News. https://abcnews.com/US/gun-stores-present-target-looters-hurricanes/story?id=57830598

The news reports on the looting of gun stores, as reported by the Bureau of Alcohol, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) after Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas. Presenting reports about gun store looting during times of disasters, suggesting that the issue should be addressed.

Deflem, M., & Sutphin, S. (2009). Policing Katrina: Managing law enforcement in New Orleans. Policing, 3(1), 41–49. https://doi.org/10.1093/police/pan071

The study analyzed the effects of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans on the organizational functioning of the police department. The study discusses the struggles in communication, transportation, and the change of duties that affected the police department during the event.

García Hombrados, J. (2020). The lasting effects of natural disasters on property crime: Evidence from the 2010 Chilean earthquake. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 175, 114–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.04.008

The study analyzed the effect of earthquakes on property crime in Chile, and the study found that there was a decrease in property crime after the disaster, increasing community strength. Suggesting a community-based crime prevention program.

Harrell, E., & Truman, Jennifer L. (2024). Trends and patterns in firearm violence, 1993–2023 (Report No. NCJ 309428). U.S. Department of Justice. Bureau of Justice Statistics https://bjs.ojp.gov/document/tpfv9323.pdf

The report discusses the issue of gun theft in the United States. The study reports that about 917,000 firearms were stolen during violent, property, and personal crimes. Establishes the importance of focusing on gun thefts. The study uses NCVS self-reported surveys; thus, the reports may be exaggerated or biased.

Hemenway, D., Azrael, D., & Miller, M. (2017). Whose guns are stolen? The epidemiology of Gun theft victims. Injury Epidemiology, 4(1), 11. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40621-017-0109-8

The study employed a survey method to study the demographics of the individuals who had their guns stolen. The study found that most stolen gun reports come from the Southern states of the USA. The study also found that handguns that were carried by the victims were more likely to be stolen. Self-reported surveys were used, so the reported numbers may not be accurate.

Hemenway, D., Miller, M., Mason, E., Fischer, S., & Azrael, D. (2026). Gun theft from private citizens in the US 2020–2024: Victims and circumstances from a national survey. Injury Epidemiology, 13(1), 11. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40621-025-00653-2

The study followed up with the previous study, Hemenway et al. (2017). The study found that individuals who own 6 or more guns, who keep guns in their car, store their guns loaded, and do not have a secure storage habit have a higher chance of getting their guns stolen.

Ikefuji, M., & Horii, R. (2012). Natural disasters in a two-sector model of endogenous growth. Journal of Public Economics, 96(9–10), 784–796. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2012.05.005

The study analyzes the effect of natural disasters on the economy and infrastructure, and it suggests that natural disasters have an adverse effect on the capital stock affecting the country in long term.

Imelda. (2024). Crime in the dark: role of electricity rationing. Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper; No. 18/2024. https://doi.org/10.71609/IHEID-5ESY-7Q87

The study analyzes the change in crime rate during the power outages. The study found that property crime is sensitive to power outages. The study found that a power outage of 10 hours per month saw an increase of 2.6 percent or eight more crime incidents.

Langton, L. (2012). Firearms stolen during household burglaries and other property crimes, 2005–2010 (Report No. NCJ 239436). U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics.

The study analyzed the reports of stolen guns during household burglaries. The study reports that property crimes involving only stolen firearms resulted in an average annual loss of $27 million.

Leaning, J., & Guha-Sapir, D. (2013). Natural disasters, armed conflict, and public health. New England Journal of Medicine, 369(19), 1836–1842. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMra1109877

Studied the relationship between natural disasters and armed conflicts and suggests that better mitigation initiatives and resource sharing should be emphasized to better combat the effects of natural disasters.

LeBeau, J. L. (2002). The impact of a hurricane on routine activities and on calls for police service: Charlotte, North Carolina, and Hurricane Hugo. Crime Prevention and Community Safety, 4(1), 53–64. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.cpcs.8140114

        The study analyzed the effect of Hurricane Hugo on the functioning of the police service. The study states that there was a higher strain on the functioning of the police circulation due to the higher number of calls. The study also suggests that vulnerable targets are more likely to be targeted during the disaster

Linning, S. J., & Silver, I. A. (2021). Crime fluctuations in response to hurricane evacuations: Understanding the time-course of crime opportunities during Hurricane Harvey. Natural Hazards Review, 22(3), 04021023. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000466

Studied the effects of evacuation policies on crime, finding an increase in crime after the storm, suggesting that the increase concedes with post-storm evacuations.

Robinson, S. L., McCort, C. D., Smirniotis, C., Wintemute, G. J., & Laqueur, H. S. (2024). Purchaser, firearm, and retailer characteristics associated with crime gun recovery: A longitudinal analysis of firearms sold in California from 1996 to 2021. Injury Epidemiology, 11(1), 8. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40621-024-00491-8

The study analyzed guns recovered at crime scenes to link them to their legal dealers. The study found that a sizable number of guns recovered from the crime scene were previously reported stolen by gun dealers.

Silverio-Murillo, A., Balmori-de-la-Miyar, J., Sobrino, F., & Prudencio, D. (2024). Do earthquakes increase or decrease crime? World Development, 182, 106711. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106711

Conducted a study to understand the effect of the 2017 Mexican earthquake on crime. The study found an increase in vandalism and violent crimes after the earthquake.

Smith, A. B. (2020). U. S. Billion-dollar weather and climate disasters, 1980—Present (NCEI Accession 0209268) [Dataset]. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. https://doi.org/10.25921/STKW-7W73

The author discusses the economic damages caused by disasters and suggests that the United States has suffered a billion-dollar loss due to them.

Varano, S. P., Schafer, J. A., Cancino, J. M., Decker, S. H., & Greene, J. R. (2010). A tale of three cities: Crime and displacement after Hurricane Katrina. Journal of Criminal Justice, 38(1), 42–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2009.11.006

The study aimed to understand the effects of Hurricane Katrina on crime in New Orleans. The study found mixed findings on the effect of Hurricane Katrina on crime. The effects were also moderate, showing no compelling evidence.

Zahnow, R., Wickes, R., Haynes, M., & Corcoran, J. (2017). Disasters and crime: The effect of flooding on property crime in Brisbane neighborhoods. Journal of Urban Affairs, 39(6), 857–877. https://doi.org/10.1080/07352166.2017.1282778

        Studied the effects of floods on property crime and found an increase in property crimes after the floods in Brisbane, Australia.

Zhao, J. S., & Zhang, Y. (2025). The impact of Hurricane Harvey on crime in Houston, Texas: A partial test of routine activity theory at the neighborhood level. Journal of Criminal Justice, 96, 102332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2024.102332

        Studied the impact of Hurricane Harvey and found that areas with more damaged infrastructure had more opportunities for crime compared to neighborhoods with less infrastructural damage. The study also found supporting evidence for RAT.

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